Game Preview: Cleveland Browns (1–3) at Washington Commanders (3–1)
Cleveland Browns (1–3) at Washington Commanders (3–1) Game Preview
Sunday, Oct. 6th, 2024; 1:00pm Eastern
Spread: Commanders -3
Over/Under: 43.5 points
Eli’s Game Prediction: Commanders 34, Browns 17
Listen: I get it. Sunday’s Commanders-Browns matchup has all the makings of a trap game for Washington. Prior to the start of the season, the spread was Browns -3 for the Oct. 6 matchup. Now? The Commanders are the ones favored by 3. The six-point swing is so tantalizing for trap potential, I’ve seen both local/national media pundits zag on this game and pick Cleveland +3, and in some cases, choose the Browns outright.
Many folks expect a Commanders letdown after three straight weeks of solid football. After all, this is Washington Football we’re talking about, right? The success simply can’t last. The Jayden Daniels/Kliff Kingsbury hype train pulled into Union Station in DC after the Commanders’ first win of the season in Week 2. Then, the Commanders’ bandwagon quintupled in passengers thanks to a 38–33 win on Monday Night Football, and a 42–14 thrashing of Arizona, in weeks 3 and 4, respectively. Daniels, Kingsbury, and Dan Quinn have to come down to Earth at some point … feels like it’s this week, right?
Wrong. I fully expect these 2024 Washington Commanders to handle business at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD and improve their record to 4–1. Now, understand I am a lifelong Washington Football fan, so, yes: I would be siced with this result. However, I truly believe this will happen despite maybe a droplet or two of bias baked into the equation.
For Washington’s offense, Kingsbury will continue to pound the run game with Brian Robinson (who is currently listed as a game-time decision as of 2PM EST on Saturday, but should play despite his knee injury) and Austin Ekeler (who has looked like the Commanders’ best player, when healthy, besides Jayden Daniels). Daniels himself will be forced to run more, as well, with Myles Garrett pushing past Washington’s O-Line and forcing Daniels out of the pocket, which is fine for Daniels; look for him to rush for easy first downs, extend plays with his legs and find McLaurin for toe-touch sideline grabs. Arguably the biggest surprise of the season for the Commanders? The offensive line. Washington will control time of possession, and the Browns will never lead.
Defense has been the glaring weak spot for the Commanders through the first quarter of the 2024 season. However, DC Joe Whitt Jr.’s defense improved last week against the Cardinals, especially on crossing routes, and it will continue its ascent against Cleveland. Dorance Armstrong, Frankie Luvu and Jeremy Chinn (who I predict will nab the Commanders’ first interception of the year) will shine, and Washington will get better performances out of Emmanuel Forbes, Bobby Wagner, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen. The Washington run defense, which has been hercting, will continue to struggle, and Jerome Ford will get his for Cleveland. But with Wagner and Luvu plugging holes in man coverage, an already weak Browns’ passing game will have a challenging Sunday afternoon. The Browns are only averaging 16.5 points per game (27th in the NFL), while the Commanders are averaging 30.3 (3rd in the NFL). DeShaun Watson continues his below-average season, and Amari Cooper and Jerome Ford at least offer some Fantasy Football value as consolation for another Browns’ loss.
Looking ahead, the Commanders will be 7–2 on the season by the halfway point of the season. They’ve got the Ravens (loss), Panthers (win), Bears (win), and Giants (win) coming up. That hype train we were talking about? It will soon morph into a rocket ship. All aboard.
Quarterback Matchup Prediction:
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington: 23–28, 242 yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interception; 15 rushes, 86 yards, 1 rushing touchdown
DeShaun Watson, QB, Cleveland: 17–27, 184 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception; 5 rushes, 28 yards
Standout Offensive Performances:
Austin Ekeler, RB, Washington: 9 rush att, 72 yards, 1 rushing TD; 7 catches, 49 yards, 1 receiving touchdown
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington: 9 catches on 10 targets, 101 yards, 1 receiving touchdown
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland: 17 rush att, 84 yard; 2 receptions, 11 yards
Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland: 6 catches on 10 targets; 77 yards, 1 touchdown
Standout Defensive Performances:
Dorance Armstrong, DE, Washington: 1 sack, 4 QB pressures
Jeremy Chinn, S, Washington: 1 interception, 3 tackles
Frankie Luvu, LB, Washington: 7 solo tackles
Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland: 1 sack, 5 QB pressures
